- I am not an expert in elections. I am also not an expert in British politics neither European politics.
- In 2015, I got it wrongly that Ed Miliband will win the elections against David Cameron
- I am not very good in dealing and analyzing polls
Nevertheless, the above weaknesses would not deter me from writing, loudly, my mind’s raw thoughts on the ongoing campaigns and forthcoming elections (2017) in the UK. My argument so far is: It is very likely that Corbyn will win. Why?
- At the beginning of the campaigns, Corbyn seemed unelectable – even within his party circles. I think that was one of the factors that prompted Theresa May to call for an election.
- His performance in the Campaigns has been impressive. As the days go, so is his rising chance towards winning. All polls have shown that the gap is shrinking.
- The mainstream media, given its entrenched biased politically correct mindset and denial to the reality on the ground, might not be showing us the reality – that Corbyn is doing well.
- Similar to the situation in the USA elections in 2016, Trump seemed an unelectable in the beginning and the mainstream media was not ready to show the reality of the situation that he was actually leading and winning.
- In 2015, one of the arguments for explaining Labour’s election lost was the presence of shy voters. It is probably the case that there are currently shy voters- who are not yet ready to publicly say they will vote for the “unelectable” “extreme” “idealistic” Corbyn.
- Given the experience in France-the recent Manchester and London terrorist attacks might not necessarily persuade voters towards the right side. In France, it was thought that the 3-day prior to the election day terrorist attack would redirect the wave towards the extreme right Le Pen. It did not happen.
- Although the election of Macron provided a “stabilizing” moment for the observed interesting trends of electing the “anti-establishment” (even though there are arguments that Macron was an “anti-establishment” – his background and also his ideas conform to the established liberal thoughts and the ideal politically correct mainstream politician).
- The “friendship” (even if seemed a little bit wounded following the USA’s president reaction and undiplomatic moves aftermath the Manchester and London attacks) between Trump and May, may be a negative element on May’s image.
- #Momentum is a very well thought strategy- it has proven efficient in the party election and re-elections.
- And in the final analysis…”the city of London is not reeling” – it is also on the course with its increasing support towards Corbyn…as Khan is doing a good job too and his recent performance has been outstanding (even if Trump denies).
Well, we have 2 days left before the election. Let’s see what happens. I am curious just as you! My mind would be more refined if proven wrong – so it is all well.